Forecast error is paid in product, not in points
In fresh produce a forecast miss costs the product itself. Order too much of a perishable and the surplus becomes shrink: the USDA Economic Research Service found that supermarkets lose 12.6% of the fresh fruit they buy. Order too little and the sale is gone, and the empty shelf records no demand, so the next forecast is lower again. A chain planned on sales history instead of demand history under-orders its best weeks every season.